• "Seasonal increases in acute malnutrition are expected in...[belg crop producing areas].. from June to July, according to UNICEF. Current indications from hotspot woredas in areas such as SNNPR and Oromiya show that admission rates are increasing."
• "Displacements due to resource-based conflicts have been reported in Oromiya and Somali regions of Ethiopia"

(UN-OCHA) The overall food security situation in the Horn of Africa for the first half of 2009 has remained alarming and prospects for the second half of the year are grim.

The failure of rains in 2008, and the late start of the raining season in the first quarter of 2009, threaten the livelihoods of local communities in the region. Between 1 February 2009 and mid-May, less than 50 percent of normal precipitation were observed in the northern and southern parts of Somalia, in most of Kenya and in the central and eastern parts of Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia, the delayed onset and erratic performance of the belg and gu rains so far is likely to increase food insecurity in belg crop-dependents and pastoral areas of SNNPR, parts of Oromyia and Amhara. Most of the Afar region also received below normal sugum rains between March and May. A total of 7.5 million chronically food insecure people continue to receive assistance through the Productive Safety Net Programme and an additional 4.9 million people receive emergency food assistance. Since February 2009, conflicts related to resources in Oromiya and Somali regions have displaced about 200,000 people who are in need of immediate assistance.

The food security of households in these regions will remain highly dependent on external food and non-food assistance until the next harvest in July/August in the belg areas and October in the meher dependent areas. With the upcoming dry season in the lowlands from July to September, a prolonged hunger season with limited availability and high prices of cereals is expected. In SNNPR, the deteriorating situation is exacerbated by low coffee yields this year (about 60 percent decline) and the limited availability of lean season products. As of 9 June, WFP is short of food for US$123.2 million for 8.6 million people and 21,000MT (US$18 million) for supplementary feeding for the period June to December 2009. Only 29,000MT are available for the relief pipeline compared to a monthly requirement of 55,800MT. This implies that beneficiaries will have received three rounds of food rather than the planned six rounds,at reduced rations and not containing all commodities.

Over 50,000 people affected by drought in Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay and Middle Shabelle regions in South Somalia are receiving emergency water trucking. In Ethiopia, serious drought has been reported in much of Afar Region and water trucking in several parts of eastern and southern Oromia, Somali Region and parts of southern and eastern Tigray is ongoing. Cholera and waterborne diseases are of increasing concern with outbreaks reported in Somalia, Kenya (20 affected districts with more than 2,200 cases and more than 60 deaths) and in Ethiopia (more than 650 cases and 20 deaths in Somali, SNNPR, Oromiya and Afar regions from mid-April to mid-May).


In Ethiopia, belg crop producing areas are particularly vulnerable with a second season of poor and erratic rains reinforcing many of the factors mentioned above. Seasonal increases in acute malnutrition are expected in these areas from June to July, according to UNICEF. Current indications from hotspot woredas in areas such as SNNPR and Oromiya show that admission rates are increasing. The few rapid nutrition surveys and assessments conducted at this point in the season have given varied results indicating an alert to critical situation. In some areas of SNNPR, a heightened prevalence of malaria (with a prevalence rate of 30 to 60 percent) is exacerbating the deterioration of the nutritional situation. As the season progresses the expectation is that acute malnutrition prevalence will be higher than normally expected. There is a risk that the prevalence will be significantly higher than normal in some hotspots. In the Ethiopian pastoral areas, the repeatedly poor raining seasons, continuing high food prices and in some areas lack of security, access to markets and associated deterioration of the WASH situation mean that acute malnutrition rates are higher than normal for this period of the year. Peaks in acute malnutrition in these areas are usually expected from July through to August. Depending on the performance of the Gu/Ganna/Sugum rains, this situation could continue to worsen and extend to at least September. The Government with support from the United Nations and NGOs has recently conducted seven surveys in the Somali region of Ethiopia. The survey results are expected to act as guidance to the degree of support for nutritional (and other) programmes in these areas. The effects of the below normal meher rains in 2008 are still being felt in parts of Tigray and Amhara. The expected peaks in acute malnutrition in these areas are also expected from July to August. Close monitoring of the situation and the onset of the rains will be required to ensure an early response to any
deterioration of the situation.

Displacements due to resource-based conflicts have been reported in Oromiya and Somali regions of Ethiopia. In a joint UN-NGO humanitarian assessment conducted between 22 and 31 March, it was recorded that more than 200,000 people were displaced in February. The assessment also indicates severe water and food shortages among affected populations, as well as increased malnutrition rates and the presence of diarrheal diseases.

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS (OCHA)